Are Whales and Goats Really that Different?

43 Days In

I decided that I would add this image to most posts. A bit of background for those who don't know. I was the first invested in the site, and have left mine alone except for a bit of a wobble during celeste's run, and one or two 'test' divests to help doog make sure things were working smoothly. 

Breaking News:

!WHALE ALERT!

We had a goat in our midst, earlier today! Not quite the same as a whale, but very close. Thanks to 'goat' our profits have reached an all time high!






So, apparently, there is this IPO thing happening today, which has caused quite a few investors to pull some BTC from J-D to buy shares. I sure hope it works out for them! Here are some thoughts from a couple of Dicers.

12:46:09 (2619) <Aahzmundus> Today is BTC-TC IPO whirlwind clustrfuck OMG the sky is falling day... and lots of people are going to be rich, and an equal number will cry.
12:46:26 (9006) <BigBitz> Deb: It's some random 2month old forum accounts offering a cluster fuck of an IPO on an exchange platform that couldn't power a lemonade stand.

In chat today:

Don't concern yourselves if Rann and I are not available to chat for a while, I am working on a nice business deal with him at the moment!


12:36:10 (3481) <Rannasha> When speculating, it is good to go against the general trend...
12:36:11 (3481) <Rannasha> so...
12:36:14 (3481) <Rannasha> buy hi, sell lo
12:36:16 (3481) <Rannasha> right?

Really mechs? Maybe you should seek some help!

13:03:52 (12141) <mechs> Doog: I payed Instanity Dice, I am sorry for cheating on J-D
13:05:16 (12141) <mechs> Doog: Insanity is a truly easy to understand possibly fair game. Does not use all your math babble to prove anything, good old video
13:06:48 (1) <dooglus> I don't know how you can prove that it's the first time you went to random.org though
13:06:58 (12141) <mechs> doog: time stamp?
13:06:59 (1) <dooglus> he can just video over and over until you lose
13:07:13 (12141) <mechs> doog: what a paranoid way to think


Well played andrew, well played.

14:00:05 (47062) <andrew> HAHAHA I AM SO STUPID
14:00:10 (47062) <andrew> i put 49.5 in the wrong spot but still won
14:00:11 (47062) <andrew> 41773530
14:00:12 (47062) <andrew> i just made
14:00:22 (47062) <andrew> 4 btc

Quote of the day:

13:10:07 (2273) <satoshi> Deb: http://i.imgur.com/0KJwOMI.jpg
13:10:14 (2273) <satoshi> if thats what you were looking for

Thanks to satoshi for capturing the goat in his natural habitat. For this, you win QotD!

From the forums:

Some names have been changed to protect the maths challenged!

You heard it here first, folks!
poolbath1
Magic and dragons would also work, just FYI.


Speaking as someone who possesses little aptitude for maths, OUCH!

Dobs

"[...]while we have a greater than 99% chance of winning, there is that 1% chance of losing[...]."

Must Read to Receive QotD Prize!

Breaking News:
Starting today you will need to request your prize for quote of the day. This is a tactic I am using in an attempt to force encourage people to read my blog. You may request in person if you see me on the chat, or you may request via email to Deb's email


This morning when I awoke and checked the site's profits, we were up over 2500. An hour or so later, we were closer to 2100. Turns out we'd been "Kellered"! WTG Keller! A nice chunk of change this morning. An hour or so after that something bad happened, and I had to take away the nice chart that was under this post, and put in a newer, and less "Kellered" version! Sorry Keller, for your loss. :(






In chat today:

 I decided that today was going to be "sweet chat quotes" day! Maybe I will try to do so every Tuesday. 

14:27:07 (31681) <Ruru> debs
14:27:17 (31681) <Ruru> i found the solution to stop gambling..
14:27:23 (31681) <Ruru> or at least it worked for me
14:27:24 (31681) <Ruru> lol
14:27:33 (31681) <Ruru> i gave away $2k.
14:28:11 (2) <Deb> you gave away 2k to whom?
14:28:20 (31681) <Ruru> struggling parents
14:28:26 (31681) <Ruru> so they can pay bills
14:28:54 (31681) <Ruru> oddly enough.. their endless thanks, made me stop gambling


Quote of the day:

His first time at the site fouyu had a run of bad luck. 


18:16:35 (2386) <opusdigitus> that was a shitty welcome. if you are not insulted by a small tip, i will send you a few bitcents
18:16:59 (55985) <fouyu> that would be awesome

Congrats opus! And thanks for being such a nice guy! Love having you at the site.

From the forums:

I want to tip my hat to RationalSpeculator on the forums for managing to colour his posts with a positive vibe that has me looking forward to reading them. Keep them coming, RS!


I am including this just to remind people about commission, as it seems to be something that comes up regularly, both on the forums and in chat.
dooglus

Quote from: drawingthesun on Today at 07:05:46 AM

Quote from: wolverine.ks on Today at 06:59:32 AM

doog,

does the 5% commission get applied the moment you divest, or the moment you remove your btc from the site completely?

Moment you divest.

EDIT: Check the invest history, it will show the amount of commission charged.

Yes, it's when you divest, and only if you divest all your principal and some new profit.  So if you invest 100, gain 10 in profit, then divest the original 100 or less, you pay no commission until the weekly run on Sunday.


Definately something fishy with this prize!
DopeFish

Quote from: dooglus on Today at 12:06:04 AM

17:02:52 (9) <Dopefish> I got 40000001
17:02:58 (57018) <SoggyLettuce> 39999999

Congrats to Dopefish (who somewhat suspiciously suggested the promo ) and SoggyLettuce who split the prize.

The evil genius strikes again 

Windows is Garbage!

Breaking News:

Price of BTC breaks 100 USD on gox!

Bitcoins banned in Thailand

Thailand has become the first country to ban Bitcoins after authorities became concerned that the virtual currency had no capital controls.

In chat today:


You can see where my mind is today, based on chat quotes.

10:53:16 (47062) <andrew> "Is that a Flash Gordon ray gun in your pocket or are you just happy to see me? ;)" *pulls out ray gun* "pew pew pew pew"

11:40:44 (1) <dooglus> looks like he spilled his magic seed on the ground :(

13:09:39 (47062) <andrew> what did the deer say when he left the bar
13:09:58 (47062) <andrew> i can't believe i blew 50 bucks

14:04:53 (11) <Banker> in/out is for sex, not investments!

14:05:38 (2386) <opusdigitus> borg women give horrible bjs

Quote of the day:

At last, something sensible!

11:44:16 (393) <DeCiB3l> I'm just going to use Linux on my laptop
11:44:28 (393) <DeCiB3l> and not worry about any of this windows garbage

Congrats DeCiB3l, on quote of the day!



From the forums:

Here is a bit of a chart doog made. I expect it may interest some! 
To see the complete chart:    doog's chart

dooglus
Someone was asking in the chat how it's possible that the site-wide luck is still over 102% after so many bets, and requested a breakdown of luck-per-chance, so here it is:

Quote

0.0001%   0.0002 (      2 /  1014500)  197.14%
 0.0010%   0.0000 (      0 /    27898)    0.00%
 0.0100%   0.0195 (      2 /    10232)  195.47%
 0.1000%   0.1046 (     34 /    32493)  104.64%
 0.7920%   0.7897 (     91 /    11524)   99.70%
 0.9900%   1.0450 (    163 /    15598)  105.56%
 1.0000%   1.0128 (   2918 /   288098)  101.28%
 1.5000%   1.7034 (    177 /    10391)  113.56%
 1.6000%   1.6021 (    267 /    16666)  100.13%
 2.0000%   2.1232 (   1208 /    56894)  106.16%
 2.4750%   2.7755 (    408 /    14700)  112.14%

peapodamus
JD is so evil, LOL! I somehow gamble away everything I make there xD
Great site, doog!

Pennies and Steamrollers

Breaking News:

Profits Chart





An article just discovered!

http://calvinayre.com/2013/07/19/business/12k-freeroll-bitcoin-betting-site-just-dice/


In chat today:

What's that you said, fractal??
11:27:58 (13767) <fractal> I SAID LOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Does this mean you are going to be cremated soon, Big?

11:36:43 (9006) <BigBitz> OK gotta urn.

We've all been thinking it, but it took Banker to come out and say it!
14:14:31 (14141) <Banker> 15:13:05 (1) <dooglus> you don't want to end up taking photos of yourself with pencils in your @$$


A little Dust-up, anyone?
18:26:58 (23050) <jill> First they came for the jews and I said nothing, then they came for the gypsies but I stayed silent, then they came for the Dusters and I held my tongue....and then they came for me!


Many of us remember the days, pre J-D.
06:43:58 (1780) <J4ckpot> Back when I was on SD I had to wait a couple of hours sometimes to get response from 1 single bet..

Quote of the day:

13:22:48 (346) <!-- nim --> 98%ing your balance is like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller

Congrats nim, on quote of the day!


From the forums:

COMA WARNING! (sorry Rann)

Rannasha

This value can be easily updated in realtime by storing the sum (before taking the root) and adding (0.99 b)² p (p - 1) to it each time a bet is made. Then to display the expected standard deviation, simply take the square root. From this you could calculate the z-value by dividing the difference between the current house profits and the expected house profits (= 1% of amount wagered) by this expected standard deviation. If JD results are a perfect normal distribution, then any z-value between -2 and 2 is within the 95% confidence interval.


Despite doog's attempt to quell  optimism, Otoh refuses succumb!
Otoh

Quote from: dooglus on Today at 01:44:15 PM

Quote from: Otoh on Today at 01:29:28 PM

One week after having started to back the house bankroll I am extremely happy with my share of the edge so far

It has been a good week.  Please don't be too surprised when we have losing weeks!

I've seen the Historical site profit graph so won't be surprised, I'm still relying on investor's fallacy to help me along though, that & astrology 


doog on drugs!
dooglus

Do you have a version that is less transparent?  I'm finding it hard to read.

doog is not a genius!

Breaking News:

Quote of the day will now have a prize attached to it! 

User ID's are being sold through the forum. Here is a chart of projected values based on previous sales. Don't worry about the Deb/Dabs thing, UV. I often answer questions directed at Dabs as I misread the name!


In chat today:

Here are some positive things  people had to say in chat!

08:06:55 (2458) <usagi> Diablo placed the bet that broke 1600: 36980431 
08:07:03 (2458) <usagi> Good show, my man!

09:15:25 (454) <boogi> Are you happy with the way the site is growing doog? It's been cool to watch

And, well, I couldn't help myself!

08:41:39 (13767) <fractal> the forum is also filled with geniuses, like the devs
08:41:44 (13767) <fractal> and dooglus

Found this in Bankers account logs. I'm not sure if it's a graph of his betting or his ECG test!

Quote of the day:

09:01:23 (13833) <MRKLYE> On a side note totally slept with the ex last night

Whoever is chosen for 'quote of the day' will have .01 BTC deposited into their JD account! Congratulations MRKLYE on being our first winner!

From the forums:

bobboooiie

What happened? Last time I checked, the website had a -2k profit, and now +1.5k

shockingly "the website" won 3,5k

bob should get a prize for not saying 'duh' in this post!


uvwvj
Right now this is 70+ hours a week for him and Deb another 40+ imo and they need to sleep somethings, and what happens when they are knocking boots and the site goes down, everyone does this.

Are you saying, uv, that every time the doog and I 'knock boots'  we knock the site down? :) I can try for a little less enthusiasm next time.

Back in Black

Breaking News:

Not Dice related, but the most interesting news of the day by far! Pirate gets busted!

https://www.sec.gov/servlet/Satellite/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370539730583#.Ue7BvPFhLkA


In chat today:

 Satoshi (3527) had a bad run and here's what people had to say:

08:53:19 (14) <Bugpowder> oooo
08:53:24 (31791) <celeste> wow...
08:53:26 (14) <Bugpowder> TILTALERT
08:53:31 (49137) <alison> OUCH
08:53:38 (1) <dooglus> dicER: 32 is also a good place to stop, it seems...
08:53:51 (14) <Bugpowder> Look on the bright side, satoshi, you didn't keep doubling
08:53:58 (9006) <BigBitz> Ohhh who lost big?
08:54:08 (9006) <BigBitz> Satoshi. damn.

Bug (14) later had an even worse run!

20:37:11 (14) <Bugpowder> divest bitches
20:37:18 (2) <Deb> bug, careful, really

And a very short time later:

20:54:55 (14) <Bugpowder> I am done
20:54:57 (14) <Bugpowder> Lost 100k
20:54:59 (14) <Bugpowder> I quit

biggest cumulative losses in last 24 hours

+-------+----------------+
| uid   | profit         |
+-------+----------------+
|    14 | -1124.14932001 |
|  3527 |  -645.97785953 |
| 43751 |   -31.64648455 |
| 32342 |   -16.13656112 |
| 10063 |       -11.1917 |
|  4073 |    -9.38704136 |
|  4798 |      -6.828073 |
| 12034 |    -6.31441095 |
| 24931 |      -5.763484 |
|  5222 |    -5.11682278 |
+-------+----------------+

On a brighter note, Banker (14141) is up 94 coins on the day! 


Quote of the day:
21:37:25 (1) <dooglus> KoS: but then you start emailing me: "I really need the money; my mom died. the hamster needs a new lung, etc. really, man let me divest" and what do I do?


From the forums:

infested999
Doog's computer is also offline when the site went down! Power outage and the site is actually hosted on a potato?

pthnmj

Don't be a lunatic,

He wouldn't go off and steal the money in Cold Storage... It's just a power-outage... He is hosting it on a computer(potato)

He should get a webserver :-)

Whale Returns - Investors Armed with Harpoons!

Breaking News:

Our resident whale played today for a total loss of 1000 BTC. Though we still have a way to go, the investors are happy to see profits heading back to the positive side!

In chat today:

14:08:10 (5884) <Mr. Whammy Gale> you always win the roll AFTER you reset
Damn, I wish someone had told me that a while back!

14:33:11 (4623) <kaiousama> Let this be a note to everybody
14:33:21 (4623) <kaiousama> When you accidentally type how much you want to deposit into your bet size
14:33:28 (4623) <kaiousama> Clear out the text box
14:33:31 (4623) <kaiousama> before you click bet




From the forums:

Thanks to Emily Spaven at CoinDesk for a great article on Just-Dice!

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gambler-cheats-satoshidice-competitor-just-dice-out-of-1300-btc/

First post ever!

Breaking News:

Profits today are a bit up, though still well below the expected 1%. Several players won a bit, and a few lost a bit more, which accounts for the slight upswing in profits!

In chat today:

We are apparently large enough to need a J-D spokesman!

21:09:23 (1) <dooglus> Zman: I'm thinking sponsorship deal. you get to wear the JD patch at all the major dicing tournaments

I am uncertain where all these major dicing tournaments are held, but I'm sure if anyone can find them, it'll be the Zman!

And from one of our big winners today!

22:17:02 (32342) <cathlene> holy crap, 21 in a row at 61%, i'll take it

cathlene walks away a winner! Go cathlene!



From the forums:

dooglus is learning things about himself that he never realized.

Watching SDICE's ups and downs as a (mostly) disinterested 3rd party feels entirely different than watching the same ups and downs on a site that I'm responsible for.  It turns out I'm risk adverse.  Who knew!

It's ok doog, just breathe!


deepceleron shares some wisdom with us.

The smart bet is the one you don't make after a series of dumb bets got you up 900BTC.

Words to live by!



And once again, we are scammers! 
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=258206.msg2753141#msg2753141
some very likely Scam sites, and users that are very likely scammers,  Dooglus Just-Dice

Perhaps we should wager on when the next accusation will appear!