Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Maths by Deb - Be Afraid!

Breaking News:

I thought we'd post the profits chart today.

It is interesting that despite many Dicers thinking that the profits would quickly head back to the expected 1% (red line) they have been running pretty much parallel to the red. This is exactly what is  expected, mathematically, and it's nice to have a visual to help those who seemed to be struggling to understand.

What this chart also illustrates beautifully is the degree to which variance affects profits while the site is so young. This same "bump" in profits should look much less dramatic when we are many more months old.

In chat today:

Sometimes I wonder about the Dicers!
21:43:59 (44512) <Wilco> i think i know what's up with my insomnia ; it's like i have jet lag, i need to go on holiday to america for a couple weeks then come back

21:45:11 (65984) <abigail> wilco, wear a Taliban T-shirt as a prank at the airport

21:44:47 (60) <jasinlee> But if I wasnt aspergers I probably woulda killed her by now :P

21:46:00 (1470) <KLYE> My record is a week with no stimulants.. I was honestly hallucinating BALLS

21:46:12 (136) <sqwerty> i smoke a lot of w**d

Then Wilco decided it was time to get everyone's attention

21:46:32 (44512) <Wilco> deb/doog did you see the new competition? 
21:46:53 (65984) <abigail> where?
21:46:54 (1) <dooglus> no?
21:47:02 (65984) <abigail> who?
21:47:05 (58969) <`2 _`2 > what?
21:47:09 (2) <Deb> competition??? what is this evil you speak?

doog of course immediately found the silver lining

21:47:17 (44512) <Wilco> they were trying to steal investors by offering 2% commission, let me find url 
21:47:27 (1) <dooglus> interesting
21:47:43 (1) <dooglus> we could do with less investors ;)

but after much thought (about 30 seconds it seems) reconsidered

21:48:14 (1) <dooglus> I think other sites might have trouble getting investors though, unless they're run by well known / trusted people
C'mon Wilco, tell us how you really feel

21:48:52 (44512) <Wilco> i looked at the site
21:48:55 (44512) <Wilco> it's a pile of shit

May cooler heads prevail

21:48:55 (65984) <abigail> dooglus has worked at establishing rep for some time now
21:48:59 (60) <jasinlee> dooglus I never talked to you much, but I never would trust any other sites, you have debunked so many scams I dont think anyone else that deals with gambling would even come close to your rep. Props!

And right back where we started, Dicer advice

22:47:59 (65984) <sixty-five-984> KLYE forget work, gamble more


22:48:08 (65984) <sixty-five-984> can you get a payday advance?

22:48:19 (65984) <sixty-five-984> sell kidney

Quote of the day:

Not sure what jas is referring to, and I am thinking it's probably better that way.

22:24:16 (60) <jasinlee> Its like prison, lots of people that dont know you are all trying to poke you.

From the forums:

That SEC diagram is a mess and Dooglus is a man who appreciates simplicity.  When he does eventually take off with the entire J-D bankroll I expect the diagram to similarly be an elegantly simple to follow roadmap.

First, you will see a bunch of boxes labeled "investors" ranging from 0.1 BTC to 1000s of BTC and it will look like Investors ----> J-D Bankroll (500,001 BTC)

Then, the rest will be an elegant, easy to read railroad track as so:
Investors ----> J-D Bankroll ----> Dooglus Coinbase Account -----> Dooglus Bank Account -----> Dooglus in Bora-Bora drinking Mai Tais with Deb in a grass hoola skirt

So much easier to follow than that monstrosity pirateat40 put together.

I am sure you are all relieved to hear that when doog runs off with your BTC it will LOOK good!

Quote from: willphase on August 07, 2013, 04:02:18 AM
It is possible to reduce the casino edge by just betting less, as per the 2-composite bet example Dooglus explained above.  I asked a friend to formalise the proof - here is his paper [link].

Quote from: dooglus on August 07, 2013, 04:09:01 AM
If only you hadn't said it reduces the edge...  The edge is 1% and not subject to change.  It's possible to bet less, and so reduce expected losses.

and now you quoted me so I can't fix it   Argh I just quoted you quoting me!!

Argh Q U O T E C E P T I O N


Seems you've gotten yourself into quite the pickle, Will!

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