Wednesday, 18 December 2013

Doge King - An Investor's View

This was a response to a post on reddit that is probably one of the best accounts of what goes on when a gambler plays for huge stakes. Interesting perspective from the investors side of it all, next we need to hear from the gamblers side. Thanks for this, Fiesta.


I saw all of this happen and it was glorious.
I had the luck to be really sick yesterday. I called in sick to work, checked the crypto charts, fired up Reddit, and saw a post about Doge Dice. I checked out the site, played a bit to see how it worked, and invested nearly 5 million DOGE (out of a total of about 430M). Little did I know that I'd be watching doge-dice for the next 15 hours straight.
Then he appears. The Doge King.
The Doge-Dice chat window, which filters out all bets less than 5000 DOGE by default and thus rarely shows any bets, is immediately flooded. 10000, 50000, 100000 DOGE are just flying by. 3 or 4 per second, for minutes at a time. And HE'S WINNING.
All other betting stops. Everyone watches, hearts pounding. Users (especially snowy) are shouting ridiculous doge-themed encouragements into the window. DOGE KING IS ONE TRUE RULER. DOGE KING HAS THE POWERRR!
I'm in shock. I've lost thousands of DOGE. He is literally taking Millions of DOGE from investors right before my eyes. Being from Nevada, I have a deep faith in the house edge, established over many years of playing all kinds of tables and slots. I'm seeing that faith shaken several times a second by an unstoppable gambling force. A TRUE DOGE KING. I almost hit the panic button -- must withdraw my investment before the KING declares them as his. I resist. The house edge is too strong, and I'm starting to realize that there is something wrong with the King.
I learn by watching the chat window that the Doge King's recent winnings are really just an attempt to gain back about 10 million DOGE he had lost earlier. I watch his bets. He is methodical. He places the same high-reward bet dozens of times in a row, stopping once it hits. He generally hits it early, and makes money. He then ups his wager and repeats. Little by little, his luck holds, and he's made millions. Again. Until he raises the wager too high. 40 or 50 100000 DOGE bets, at a 3% odds, are lost. He's down around 5 Million in about 30 seconds. He walks away, down about 10 million overall.
Then he comes back. He comes back pissed. And I know the house has won.
All semblance of a betting strategy is gone. He wildly fluctuates between 5000, 10000, 200000 DOGE and more, all at a 48% odds. He makes huge, nearly even bets, and he's killing it. Multiple times per second he takes hundreds of thousands of DOGE. It goes on for 30 minutes or more - a breathless, savage betting spree. The Doge King makes tens of thousands of bets, worth hundreds of millions of DOGE. The Chat window is again filled with his bets and his admiring onlookers: SUCH LUCK, DOGE KING TO THE MOON!
All the while I watch in horror. In minutes the Casino Profit is down from 12 Million to -2 Million. The Doge King, in a single savage burn, has managed to win 14 Million from Doge-Dice.
He ends his betting with Casino Profit totally ruined. The Chat window erupts with elated praise. SUCH WOW. Onlookers rush to post their addresses, The Doge King rains doge upon his adoring subjects. I (and I imagine the other investors) feel like the Sherriff of Nottingham - furious that the Doge King gets to play Robin Hood with my money. But I have to admit: I am in awe. The man has the hugest cajones of any gambler I've ever seen, and it had paid off for him. The Doge King is like the uber-doge. Honorable, generous, adored, and supremely gifted. He tells us that he's made back 13 M DOGE, and that he's only 8 M down at that point. He tells us he's going to bed.
Dejected, I stopped to reflect and catch my breath. It was the first time I was ever able to enjoy the house edge, and it was the first time I ever saw someone so mercilessly laugh at those odds and win. I was stunned.
And so, for the first time in my life, I must ask myself: is luck real? Can someone just be so lucky that they ruin a casino? How did the casinos I grew up around stay in business when there are people like the Doge King around?
Then it struck me: the Doge King will be dethroned, and he will do it himself.
The house's ultimate edge is the high the player gets when gambling. The Doge King is hooked - we were all hooked just watching him. I knew he'd be back, and I knew that the gambling high is so powerful that he wouldn't stop chasing it until he couldn't chase it. Until he'd re-lost his fortune in DOGE. I was sad for the Doge King. He was like Oedipus. On top of the world, but had already doomed himself to failure.
And I was right. Doge King bets reappear in the Chat window without warning. Huge, startling bets. 80000, 160000, 320000 - all at 48%. They fly by at 2 or 3 per second. The Profits are moving too quick to get a read on anything. But once the Doge King takes a breather and the betting stops we can he's lost (again) at least 5 M DOGE. He immediately resumes. Same strategy. His up a bit here and there, but the trend is clear. He's losing. The Doge King faithful are wailing in the chat window. Profit is way up. 5 Million. 8 Million. 12 Million. In seconds.
I feel bad for the Doge King. He is exhibiting all the signs of a problem gambler and is losing DOGE of considerable real-world value. My heart sinks when I see the following sequence of bets: 160000 (red) 160000 (red) 320000 (red) 640000 (red) 640000 (red) 1600000 (red) 1600000 (red) 1600000 (red)
In under 3 seconds he's lost another 5 Million DOGE. His previously-winning strategy of doubling-down on big losses has backfired. I suspect he does not have enough DOGE to wager another 1.6 M. He quits.
The Doge King pops into the chat window with a single message for his adoring fans: "peace"
TL;DR: Someone named the Doge King pulled off some of the most amazing gambling runs I've ever seen, and I'm from Casino country. However, the Doge King is a problem gambler. He is addicted to the gambling high, loses tens of millions of DOGE, and walks away a loser. Don't be like the Doge King.

Here is a Doge deposit address for DethFiesta for your generous tips!

DG25RUYvT2BcWfd8YjMeB1DXjZG2uRxShN 

5 comments :

  1. Here's a video of him winning it all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAH1w_o0JgE

    Here's a video of him losing it all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t32eeYk_IWA

    I recorded the entire thing. Enjoy!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Could you post a deposit address please Forrest for tips?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. D5MLiCKqkNZeksKgirDbi4DBMg87HjUZeY

      Here you go! Thanks ^^

      Delete
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